It’s time we got real about where we are and who is coming to our rescue. The economy is not turning around. It’s finally becoming clear that the market isn’t “normalizing.” It’s tanked, and it’s getting worse. The same people who remained forcefully optimistic about a mere “market correction” are now out looking for jobs, starting new careers, or are huddled in the fetal position on the floor somewhere waiting for the federal stimulus package to fix everything. Let me say this clearly: it’s not going to fix everything. It may help keep everything from falling apart, but the road to recovery is our own.



For those unfamiliar, our state government employs some of the most potent economic prophets around. They use mystical systems of calculation to project how much tax revenue the state will bring in. The latest revenue forecast shows projected General Fund revenue down another half a billion dollars from already grim projected shortages.



“Until our national banking and credit system is restored to good health, businesses and households lack the capital and confidence to jump-start our economy,” said Dr. Arun Raha, the state’s chief revenue forecaster. “However, the federal stimulus and other recent moves by the federal government to repair the banking system suggest the beginnings of an economic recovery by the end of the year, with improvement in the state revenues to follow.”



Let’s translate Dr. Raha’s statement: Until massive, macroeconomic forces dig themselves out of the mess they’ve helped make, they’re not giving anyone any money to build stuff or buy stuff. The government is doing its best to patch holes in the credit system, and if we’re lucky, we may see the effects by the end of the year. “Suggest” is a word that people use when they don’t want to commit to a statement. Usually because they know they’re being overly optimistic, and don’t want to be accused of it when things don’t turn out well.



For a more honest estimation, we turn to Gov. Christine Gregoire, who said recently, “Unfortunately, even with the billions of dollars heading our way from the federal recovery package, Washington still faces the largest budget gap in state history. We’re certainly getting much-needed help, but it’s not a cure-all.”



Then she drops this gem:



“A Stanford economist once said a crisis is a terrible thing to waste. We can’t afford to ride out this economic crisis and wait for things to turn around.”



The point she makes is a crucial one. A crisis is a terrible thing to waste. And if state government is rolling up its sleeves and getting dirty, I think we should too. The feds aren’t coming to our rescue, and neither are state officials. They’ll help, but we really need to stop looking to the powers that be to rebuild our crumbling system. I can’t tell you how many times my heart has sunk listening to people say “Isn’t that all going to change now that Obama is president?” or “What about the federal stimulus money? Won’t that help?” Or even worse, “Where can I get my hands on some of it?”



We can not continue to pretend that the powers that be have all the power. They don’t. They don’t even have most of it. There is no authority figure, government body or financial institution capable of pulling us from the mire. This is going to be a bootstrap operation, folks. For real.